Sentiment analysis 13 Dec 2016

By | December 13, 2016

You will find my sentiment analysis and bias for the pairs for 13 Dec 2016, based on news and fundamentals

 

GBP – hammond backs slower brexit

CPI expected to outperform

-buy dips

AUD – biz confidence good but not good enough for higher levels of investment. Bounce back expected, next Q, be4 subdued growth. It could be ok to buy dips, but I think sell rallies first because we expect 2 rate cuts next year to bolster growth

2 rate cuts expected next year in response to low inflation and subdued growth outlook

 

EUR – german CPI, if beat, euro will outperform, buy dips, because it is in line with bullish outlook and ‘tapering’

If poor, then it is like, ok just wait for QE effects. In-line, still bullish I feel, because on track to euro recovery

German ZEW economic sentiment forecasted better, buy dips

If beat, then outperform, buy dips.

If poor then may fall also. Sell rallies

Employment expected slightly worse

 

CAD – agreed to cut production. Now focus on implementation. So given that you have already agreed to cut production, are you going to rally? More? Probably not right. , sell rallies. Until uncertainty in implementation is covered, right now has good amt of uncertainty

Also given that oil output has been record highs in november, though signs of compliance have been there, it is bearish and sell rallies

Of course will be largely supported if it goes too low

 

USD – we all know fed is going to raise rates, then what?

JPY – no longer risk on. Given we alrd know fed is going to raise rates. BOJ mulling raising economic assesment for the first time since may 2015. May not want to talk down conditions, but I feel still this is bullish

Yields dropped

Buy JPY dips

 

Summary

GBP buy

AUD sell

EUR buy

CAD sell

JPY buy

USD

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