I had a friend share his realisations with me today.
“Every single thing/task/communication, huge or tiny, glamourous or despicable has its basic principles. Everything has a cause and effect. If something does not work, it does not mean there are anomalies/exceptions. It just means we have not seen a bigger picture. Anomaly is just an excuse for the people who gave up trying.”
Very relevant words for me, especially since I design automated trading systems. Everyday, I think of how to improve old systems, I think of how to create new profitable ones. Yet most of them turn out to be unprofitable once backtested. This is natural, as the market is not so easy to decipher. From my own experience, I would say only 1 in 10 systems designed are profitable and 1 in 20 are highly profitable with a low drawdown. This is the natural way the market weeds out the undetermined people.
For trading system developers, most of the time the systems designed “do not work”. Yes, but that does not mean there is an anomaly with the market. That just means we haven’t seen a bigger picture. Don’t give up!