Straits times index outlook (STI Index) till Nov 2015 to Jan 2017
20 Dec 2015
STI still on track to hit 2910-2940 as posted earlier on 15 Dec 2015. Meanwhile keep in mind that this is a minor upward move. The main trend is still down, and is expected to go down all the way to 2000pts in Jan 2017.
I leave you with this picture from Benson Tan taken from the SGX technical & fundamental analysis facebook group
15 Dec 2015
So STI has reached our target of 2974 and closed the gap. (posted on 29 Nov 2015 below). What’s next?
I probably expect a short term bounce to 2940 area, but not any higher because the weekly/monthly downtrend cycle is still strong (based on Stochastics). Downtrend should resume after bounce to 2940
29 Nov 2015
Looks like I was wrong in the previous post on 24 Nov, and STI is probably headed further down to 2794 to close the daily gap.
24 Nov 2015
So STI has reached our target as projected on 12 Nov, and exit strategy updated on 16 Nov (below). What’s next?
I expect STI to move upwards from here on to the previous 3108 high, AND break it slightly.
- We are at 61.8% retracement of recent October upswing from 2744 to 3108
- Price action (lower blue area) indicates it is very unlikely for price to move lower. We have an area of congestion (lower blue area), AND also the strength of the october upswing is much stronger than the current down swing (3108 to 2878) – This can be seen by the much bigger bars closing near highs of the October upswing vs the current down swing
16 Nov 2015
Prepare to exit STI shorts if break above 2923 (high of 16 Nov). Otherwise, would look at exit around 2850 region (close gap on daily)
1. Price is at 61.8% retracement of recent upswing begining 29 Sept 2015
2. The parabolic down move starting from 4th Nov looks quite exhaustive today (16 Nov) – (Because price is at a very far distance from moving averages. The trendline down, starting from 11 Nov, is also very steep.
12 Nov 2015
1. One can short at the trendline break for the following reason:
On the weekly, it is still a major downtrend (with Moving avgs crossed downwards). This means any rally would have a good chance of being sold. While I don’t expect it to break the prior low at 2700, I think it could reach 2880, or best case scenario is 2823. Will have to monitor the price action during the down move in the coming days to make a better assesment of profit target
3. The blue box is a range I expect STI to remain in for the coming few months.
8 Nov 2015
Still bearish. Expecting a 2nd leg up to blue zone for a short. Weekly and monthly cycles are down (based on 24 and 9 SMA cross on both timeframes)
1 Nov 2015
STI Outlook. I think it is a very bearish market. Do not go long. But at the same time, expect a ranging market for the next few weeks. You can take the opportunity to short at the top of the range (resistance area) 3100-3140
Long term outlook: Target is STI 2000, Jan 2017